The Hugo ballot is (finally) here! First, a hearty congratulations to all of the finalists. Everyone on this list works hard at their craft, and at building a loyal fan base, and deserves the recognition they get.

A few months ago when voting for the Hugo Awards began, I posted my predictions for what I thought would appear on the final ballot in the fiction categories and wrote that I would return to the scene of the crime when the finalists were announced to tally my score. I did pretty good overall, except in the short story category. I mention in the previous article that I had no way of knowing how much Chinese voters would affect the outcome, and it turned out that Best Short Story was the place where they made the most difference. I am pleased to be wrong in this case because I was hoping Chinese fans would get their say, and they did.

I said I would also reveal the picks on my own ballot. Now, I have seen over the last fifteen years or so my own tastes and those of the “mainstream” Hugo voters have diverged, but this is the first time in my personal Hugo voting history that not a single work on my ballot was a finalist in the fiction categories. To clarify just how far apart we’ve moved: in 2010, I had 3 novels, 2 novellas, 1 novelette, and 2 short stories from my nominating ballot make the final list. In the 13 years since, I have had only 8 Best Novel nominees on my ballot, and never more than one in a given year; 10 novella nominations, though none since 2020; 8 novelette picks, though not more than one in a single year since 2011 (though two of these were winners, in 2011 and 2016); only 3 short story finalists, and none since 2017 (“That Game We Played During the War”, by Carrie Vaughn). But this year is the first year I’ve ever scored a big fat donut hole in all four categories – though in fairness, as you will see, I predicted as much.

Best Novel

The Daughter of Doctor Moreau is a pleasant surprise. This is Moreno-Garcia’s first Hugo nomination, though she has finished below the cutoff multiple times as an editor and as an author. Her novel Mexican Gothic just missed out in 2021, finishing seventh. It looks as if her Hugo fanbase is growing.

I really didn’t expect anything on my ballot to make the cut. Eversion may have been the only one within throwing distance, tough it’s likely it won’t even appear with the “nominations below cutoff” when the figures are released. Rusch’s novel is my personal favorite. This serialization was very popular with Asimov’s readers, but it doesn’t seem like there are enough of those left in the Hugo voting pool to get anything on the list in any category. Fun fact, the last time a serialized novel was nominated for a Hugo was Rollback by Robert J. Sawyer, which appeared in Analog from October 2006 – January 2007, though it also appeared as a stand-alone book during its eligibility year. The last time a serialized novel was nominated when only appearing as a serial during its eligibility year was Shadrach in the Furnace by Robert Silverberg, which appeared in Analog from August – October 1976. What could have been, if only my fellow Diving Universe fans were Hugo voters.

Best Novella

When making my predictions for this category, I joked “Much like Thanos, Becky Chambers is inevitable and can seemingly conjure up a Hugo nomination with a snap of her fingers. There are none powerful enough to stop her, nor brave enough to try.” So of course she’s the one prediction I got wrong. I have not read Ogres yet but I’m a huge Tchaikovsky fan so I’m looking forward to it.

The only nomination on my ballot I thought had an outside chance of being a finalist was Sins of our Fathers, an excellent coda to the widely popular Expanse series. The rest were all personal favorites. It’s difficult enough for anything in this category not published by Tor to score a nomination; if your novella is magazine published – even by a (fre)e-zine like Clarkesworld – your chances are diminished even further.

Best Novelette

Five of the finalists were Nebula nominees, while I had predicted four of them to make the grade. One of my Nebula crossover picks didn’t pan out nor did my prediction that Seanan McGuire would score a Wayward Children hat trick this year. We also see the first of the Chinese-language nominees, “The Space-Time Painter” by Hai Ya. I suppose I may have to hit up Google translate when the voter packet comes out.

Among the novelettes on my ballot, I thought Suzanne Palmer’s “The Sadness Box” had a decent chance of being a finalist, so much so that I considered making it one of my predictions. The unreasonably hopeful part of my brain thinks Egan and Reed always have a chance, even though it has been awhile since either were within arm’s reach of a Hugo.

Best Short Story

When I wrote that I had no way to predict how Chinese voters would impact the results, this is what I was talking about. At least I scored with the two English language nominees. I am curious to see how close I got with my other predictions when the full details are released in October. For now I’m looking forward to the hastily translated versions of the other stories appearing soon online!

Ballot-wise, Ken Liu always gets some votes and Ray Nayler has slowly been raising his profile with award voters the last few years, but i still considered their chances distant. My Analog favorites had little chance, but they deserved my vote anyway.

I will revisit these nominees with my reviews of the finalists in the short story and novelette categories at some point in the future. I have read Two of the Best Novel nominees (Moreau and Scalzi) and will try to find the time to read the other four before voting ends. I have not read any of the novella finalists and I will try to work my way through those as well.