2026 Hugo Award Fiction Shortlists: A Comparative Analysis

So today saw the Hugo Award shortlist announcement, published on LA Worldcon social media feeds at 10am PST. Something I always like to eyeball which fiction finalists cross over with the Nebula shortlist, as well as my own nominating ballot. Generally, my personal track record is not good. The Nebulas and Hugos end up with a little more synchronicity, I assume because many SFWA members also nominate for the Hugos, and perhaps also because the Nebula shortlist is usually announced a couple of weeks before the Hugo nominating period ends, and some Hugo voters may utilize it as a last-minute reading list. However, this year these categories had a lower than usual finalist concurrence. Maybe a trend? Or just a blip? We will see in the coming years.

My Hugo Ballot for Best Series

Liaden Universe, Sharon Lee and Steve Miller

Old Man’s War, John Scalzi

The Sun-Eater, Christopher Ruocchio

White Space, Elizabeth Bear

Honor Harrington, David Weber

The Chronicles of Osreth, Katherine Addison

The Craft Wars, Max Gladstone

Emily Wilde, Heather Fawcett

October Daye, Seanan McGuire

Old Man’s War, John Scalzi

White Space, Elizabeth Bear

There is, of course, no Nebula category for Best Series.

I thought the new Old Man’s War novel was just so-so, but I felt the nomination would reflect the high quality of the previous entries in the series. I thought its nomination was a foregone conclusion, while I had zero expectation that the other four series would make the shortlist. What a pleasant surprise to see White Space there as well!

I’ve read The Goblin Emperor and The Witness for the Dead, both from Addison’s Osreth universe. Both were perfectly fine novels (I liked the latter a smidge more than the former) but I did not love them quite as much as other Hugo voters seem to.

I read the first two Craft Sequence novels a number of years ago and enjoyed both, but for whatever reason did not remain devoted to the series. The Craft Wars is a new series presumably set in the same universe. I hope to at least read the first book, Dead Country, before casting my final vote, though I tend to favor the Best Novel and Novella categories for my catch-up reading, so we’ll see if there’s time.

I have to admit I ignored the Emily Wilde books by Heather Fawcett because titles like “Emily Wilde’s Encyclopaedia of Faeries” sounded a bit “twee” and “cozy” for my tastes. But I may give it a shot if it’s in the voter packet.

I have never read anything in the October Daye series by Seanan McGuire, but I have read a few books by her that I’ve liked (and some others, less so). The series has been nominated before (three times, I think?) and I declined to read it each time, because of my previously stated preference for catching up on other categories first. Maybe this will be the year! I do love a good urban fantasy novel, and they don’t get enough Hugo love.

My Best Series Hugo Ratio: 40%

Nebula Shortlist for Best Short Story

“Because I Held His Name Like a Key”, Aimee Ogden (Strange Horizons 16 Jun 2025)

“In My Country”, Thomas Ha (Clarkesworld Apr 2025)

“Laser Eyes Ain’t Everything”, Effie Seiberg (Diabolical Plots May 2025)

“Six People to Revise You”, J. R. Dawson (Uncanny Jan/Feb 2025)

“The Tawlish Island Songbook of the Dead”, E. M. Linden (PodCastle 18 Feb 2025)

“Through the Machine”, P. A. Cornell (Lightspeed May 2025)

My Hugo Ballot for Best Short Story

“In My Country”, Thomas Ha (Clarkesworld Apr 2025)

“In the Halls of the Makeshift King”, Tobias S. Buckell (Asimov’s Jul/Aug 2025)

“Landline” by Kelly Robson (Reactor Mar 5, 2025)

“Prime Purpose”, Steve Rasnic Tem (Analog Jan/Feb 2025)

“Woolly”, Carrie Vaughn (Asimov’s May/June 2025)

“10 Visions of the Future; or, Self-Care for the End of Days”, Samantha Mills (Uncanny Mar/Apr 2025)

“In My Country”, Thomas Ha (Clarkesworld Apr 2025)

“Laser Eyes Ain’t Everything”, Effie Seiberg (Diabolical Plots May 2025)

“Missing Helen”, Tia Tashiro (Clarkesworld, Jul 2025)

“Six People to Revise You”, J. R. Dawson (Uncanny Jan/Feb 2025)

“Wire Mother”, Isabel J. Kim (Clarkesworld, Oct 2025)

Well if there’s one thing we can all agree on, it’s that Thomas Ha is an effin’ great writer. Though clearly, we can’t agree on much else, at least not when it comes to my ballot. Nebula and Hugo voters shared the love for stories by Seiberg and Dawson along with the aforementioned Ha.

I’ve not read the story by Seiberg, as Diabolical Plots is not on my regular roster of reading material. But it’s always nice to discover new things, so I will give it a whirl before the voting deadline.

The two Uncanny stories by Mills and Dawson are fine. I’m usually skeptical of stories with clickbait-y titles but I try not to hold it against them.

Missing Helen is a good story. It wasn’t on my ballot obviously, but I’m glad it’s there. It’s thoughtful and well written and has a neat premise with a top-shelf opening sentence.

I wasn’t a big fan of Wire Mother when I first read it, but I will give it a second go and maybe my mind will change.

Nebula to Hugo Best Short Story Ratio: 50%

My Best Short Story Ratio: 20%

Nebula Shortlist for Best Novelette

“The Life and Times of Alavira the Great as Written by Titos Pavlou and Reviewed by Two Lifelong Friends”, Eugenia Triantafyllou (Uncanny Mar/Apr 2025)

The Name Ziya, Wen-Yi Lee (Tor)

“Never Eaten Vegetables”, H. H. Pak (Clarkesworld Jan 2025)

“Our Echoes Drifting Through the Marsh”, Marie Croke (Beneath Ceaseless Skies 9 Jan 2025)

“Uncertain Sons”, Thomas Ha (Uncertain Sons)

“We Begin Where Infinity Ends”, Somto Ihezue (Clarkesworld Feb 2025)

My Hugo Ballot for Best Novelette

“Never Eaten Vegetables”, H.H. Pak (Clarkesworld Jan 2025)

“The Sack of Burley Cottage”, Rich Larson (Reactor June 25, 2025)

“The Tin Man’s Ghost”, Ray Nayler (Asimov’s May/Jun 2025)

“The Twenty-One Second God”, Peter Watts (Lightspeed June 2025)

“The Witch and the Wyrm”, Elizabeth Bear (Reactor Feb 26, 2025)

“Kaiju Agonistes”, Scott Lynch (Uncanny Magazine Jan/Feb 2025)

“Never Eaten Vegetables”, H.H. Pak (Clarkesworld Jan 2025)

“Rapport: Friendship, Solidarity, Communion, Empathy”, Martha Wells (Reactor, July 10, 2025)

“The Girl That My Mother Is Leaving Me For”, Cameron Reed (Reactor, April 2, 2025)

“The Millay Illusion”, Sarah Pinsker (Uncanny Nov/Dec 2025)

“When He Calls Your Name”, Catherynne M. Valente (Uncanny Jul/Aug 2025)

I got one right! Even after the nebula nomination, I wasn’t sure Never Eaten Vegetables would score a Hugo nod. It’s a brilliant tale: smart, poignant, a little bonkers, and with a unique SFnal premise. Barring a miracle, it will be ranked first on my final ballot.

The Kaiju story is a very fun satire of both kaiju genre tropes and 20th century global politics.

Okay so the Martha Wells Murderbot story was one I considered for my ballot, but a few years ago Wells said Murderbot had won enough awards and has been declining Hugo noms for it ever since, so I assumed that would still hold true. Thanks a lot, Martha! Not that you needed my vote anyway.

The Cameron Reed story didn’t land for me when I first read it. Maybe it will on the reread.

I will never object to a Sarah Pinsker story getting a Hugo nomination, even if this one wasn’t an absolute favorite of mine. It was still pretty good.

So, confession time. I don’t always read Uncanny “cover to cover” so to speak. I guess it doesn’t always vibe with me the way it vibes with most of the Hugo voting population. I couldn’t remember reading the Valente story so I checked back and it turned out I had skipped over the entire issue! Something new to chew on once again.

Afterthought: The Marie Croke story that was nominated for the Nebula is awesome and nearly made my ballot. In retrospect maybe I should have included it, perhaps over the Watts or Bear stories (really these decisions are hard). If it turns out that it missed the shortlist by one vote I’m going to punch myself in the dick (not really I’ll just be kind of sad).

Nebula to Hugo Best Novelette Ratio: 17% (WTF! Shocking!)

My Best Novelette Ratio: 20% (the usual)

Nebula Shortlist for Best Novella

Automatic Noodle, Annalee Newitz (Tordotcom)

But Not Too Bold, Hache Pueyo (Tordotcom)

The Death of MountainsJordan Kurella (Lethe)

“Descent”, Wole Talabi (Clarkesworld May 2025)

Disgraced Return of the Kap’s Needle, Renan Bernardo (Dark Matter INK)

The River Has Roots, Amal El-Mohtar (Tordotcom; Arcadia)

My Hugo Ballot for Best Novella

Extremity, Nicholas Binge (Tordotcom)

“Quantum Ghosts”, Nancy Kress (Asimov’s Mar/Apr 2025)

The Adventure of the Demonic Ox, Lois McMaster Bujold (Spectrum)

“The Apologists” by Tade Thompson (Clarkesworld Nov 2025)

The Dagger in Vichy, Alastair Reynolds (Subterranean)

Automatic Noodle, Annalee Newitz (Tordotcom)

Cinder House, Freya Marske (Tordotcom)

Murder by Memory, Olivia Waite (Tordotcom)

The River Has Roots, Amal El-Mohtar (Tordotcom)

The Summer War, Naomi Novik (Del Rey)

What Stalks the Deep, T. Kingfisher (Nightfire)

This is always the lost category for me. I literally haven’t successfully nominated a single work in this category in probably a decade (I’ll have to check). I think the reason for this is that I’m not addicted to Tordotcom novellas like everyone else is. Not always my cuppa. But even when I find one that is my cuppa (like Extremity) it never ends up making the shortlist. Oh well lots of reading to do before the deadline (again).

Though honestly Murder by Memory looks like it’s right up my alley, I’m kicking myself for not having read it yet. I’m a fan of Novik, too. I’d heard about The Summer War but havn’t got around to picking it up.

Nebula to Hugo Best Novella Ratio: 33%

My Best Novella Ratio: BIG FAT DONUT HOLE

Nebula Shortlist for Best Novel

The Buffalo Hunter Hunter, Stephen Graham Jones (Saga)

Death of the Author, Nnedi Okorafor (Morrow)

The Incandescent, Emily Tesh (Tor)

Katabasis, R. F. Kuang (Harper Voyager US; Harper Voyager UK)

Sour Cherry, Natalia Theodoridou (Tin House)

Wearing the Lion, John Wiswell (DAW)

When We Were Real, Daryl Gregory (Saga)

My Hugo Ballot for Best Novel

A Drop of Corruption, Robert Jackson Bennett (Del Rey)

Esperance, Adam Oyebanji (DAW)

Shroud, Adrian Tchaikovsky (Orbit US)

The Devils, Joe Abercrombie (Tor)

The Folded Sky, Elizabeth Bear (Saga)

A Drop of Corruption, Robert Jackson Bennett (Del Rey)

Death of the Author, Nnedi Okorafor (William Morrow)

Shroud, Adrian Tchaikovsky (Orbit US)

The Everlasting, Alix E. Harrow (Tor US)

The Incandescent, Emily Tesh (Tor US)

The Raven Scholar, Antonia Hodgson (Orbit US)

Hey, not bad! Though based on last year’s results, Bennett and Tchaikovsky were probably pretty good bets. I thought The Devils and The Folded Sky both had a fighting chance of making the list (we’ll see when they release the stats). Esperance was a long shot; DAW hasn’t had much of a presence at the Hugos for a while now and I don’t think Oyebanji is really on Worldcon’s radar. It’s a phenomenal book, though. Y’all should read it!

BTW I am STUNNED that Katabasis was not a Hugo finalist. I thought it was a virtual lock.

I haven’t read any of the other nominees. The Raven Scholar has been on my to-read pile for some time. The other three I’ve been circling but likely would have passed on (so many books to read!) if not for the nominations.

Nebula to Hugo Best Novel Ratio: 33%

My Best Novel Ratio: 40%

Anyway, happy reading WSFS people! See you at LA Worldcon!

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